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Trading Performance 2017-2018


EUR/USD News & Analysis

Forex signals

Forex Trading Strategies News & Analysis





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Fed target rate is likely to be left unchanged today, while the statement should continue to point to further gradual rate hikes. When the Fed does raise its target rate by another 25bp, most probably in December, it will most likely lift the interest on excess reserves by less than 25bp in order to push the effective fed funds rate back to the middle of the target band; the same approach it used in June. There is an outside risk that the Fed will deal with this issue already at this week’s meeting by cutting the interest on excess reserves by 5bp to 10bp. However, we think that such a move is extremely unlikely as the Fed does not want to send the wrong signal about easing the policy stance. In addition, the committee will use the meeting to discuss the target size and composition of its balance sheet.

EUR/USD has seen some support from the result of Tuesday’s US midterm elections, closing around 0.3% up on the day. We do not expect an immediate change in US trade policies or an infrastructure program as a result of the Democrats winning the House. With the US trade tensions likely to dominate the medium-term picture, and following the recent deterioration of eurozone PMIs, we think a convincing rebound in sentiment surveys would probably be needed for EUR/USD to stage a significant recovery.

Trading strategies:

The outcome of the US midterm elections is shaping up in line with our and prevailing market expectations. The Democrats are set to win the seats needed to gain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, while the Republicans will keep the Senate.

The Democrats will now head House committees that can investigate the president's tax returns, possible business conflicts of interest and possible links between his 2016 election campaign and Russia.

The Democrats also could force Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions, possibly dooming his promises to fund a border wall with Mexico, pass a second major tax-cut package, or carry out his hardline policies on trade.

EUR/USD went up after U.S. midterm elections, in line with our expectations. EUR/USD bulls tightened their grip with a daily close above the 1.1423 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 1.1815 to 1.1302 (September to October) fall, with their attention firmly on the upside. The 30-day MA at 1.1481 breached, a close above will be very bullish. The next resistance level is 1.1498 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the same 1.1815-1.1302 fall. We remain long.

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