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Yesterday, the UK and EU negotiators reached an agreement on a draft withdrawal text at a technical level. Crucially, the UK cabinet will meet today at 14:00 GMT to decide whether to approve the draft text. If the cabinet approves it, this would pave the way for an extraordinary Council summit later this month to sign off a deal. A rejection of the draft text by the cabinet today would mean it is back to the drawing board. We expect the cabinet to give its approval today, but it will be important to watch whether it triggers further ministerial resignations, which would further destabilize Theresa May’s position. The draft withdrawal text has not yet been published. Reportedly, it includes a UK-wide customs union “backstop” but does not include the Northern Ireland-specific “backstop to the backstop” that the EU had been pushing for. Whether there is a majority in the UK parliament for the agreement will depend on the detail, which will only become clear in the coming hours, days and weeks.

Yesterday evening, the Italian government sent a letter to the European Commission in response to the rejection of its draft budgetary plan. As expected, the government has decided not to substantially change its fiscal plan, which envisages an expansionary fiscal policy next year, mainly aimed at financing a citizenship program, changes to pension legislation to allow people to retire early and a boost to public investment. However, in the letter, the government commits itself to increasing privatization proceeds (from 0.6% of GDP to 1.0%) in order to support the reduction of the public debt/GDP ratio and indicates it is ready to take corrective measures to avoid any further increase in budget deficit compared to the target (2.4% of GDP in 2019), that might occur due to weaker economic prospects. Lastly, in order to mitigate the non-compliance with the structural adjustment embedded in the Stability and Growth Pact rules, the government asks the EC for additional flexibility, under the rule of exceptional circumstances, for an amount of 0.2% of GDP in investment, mainly aimed at tackling the hydrogeological instability. The European Commission could reply to the government as soon as next week, at least about the compliance of Italy’s plan with the EU debt rules.

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