The dollar rose for a fourth straight day on Friday, benefiting from turbulence caused by an escalating U.S.-China trade conflict, as investors prepared for a U.S. jobs report due later in the day.

Nonfarm payrolls probably rose by 190k jobs last month after increasing 213k in June. The projected slowdown reflects our view that labor supply shortages (in particular for skilled workers) makes it increasingly hard for companies to find the right workers for job openings. Job gains of around 180k are more than enough to put further downward pressure on the jobless rate, which we expect to ease back to 3.9%, after rising to 4.0% in June. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% mom, leaving the yoy rate at an unchanged 2.7%.

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