Market volatility was low in thin trading ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Wednesday.

General market sentiment improved after the Chinese central bank moved to calm currency markets following a fall in the renminbi below a key psychological level. In a statement on the website of the People's Bank of China, Governor Yi Gang said the central bank was closely watching fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and would seek to keep the yuan at a stable and reasonable level.

This is how we trade now:

EUR/USD

Trading strategy: Short

Open: 1.1710

Target: 1.1510

Stop-loss: 1.1710 (lowered from 1.1810)

Recommended size: 1.50 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: EUR/USD cannot break the grip of the converging 10 and 21-day SMAs. Consolidation of long-term losses is a concern for EUR/USD bulls. A break above the 61.8% Fib of 1.1853-1.1508 at 1.1721 would ease these concerns. But for now, continuation of downward move is a more likely scenario. We stay short with stop-loss lowered to the entry point.

GBP/USD

Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: The GBP/USD remains below 7-day exponential moving average, which keeps the bearish structure intact. A short play for a move towards 1.3000 is tempting, but we do not want to increase risk on our portfolio with another USD-short position.

USD/JPY

Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: Stop-loss hit at 111.00, lost: 110 pips, $150 per $10,000 in your account. The USD/JPY broke above a psychological barrier of 111.00 on Friday, but failed to close above that level. The pair remains, however, above 7-day exponential moving average, which highlights the bullish sentiment. We stand aside for now.

 

USD/CAD

Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: The Canadian dollar strengthened the USD on Tuesday on rising oil prices. What’s more, Canadian manufacturing data supported the view that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates next week. The pair found support just below 1.3150, last 3-days low 1.3131, 1.3140 and 1.3133 today. A break below recent triple bottom area eyes 1.3100 big figure support and lower 21-d Bollinger at 1.3082. Bulls need a close above 10-day MA resistance by 1.3257. 

                                                                                                                     

AUD/USD

Trading strategy: Short

Open: 0.7410

Target: 0.7170

Stop-loss: 0.7530

Recommended size: 1.25 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The pair cannot hold below 61.8% Fibo of 2016-18 rally. Ensuing bounce stalls short of 0.7415/25 resistance though. Consolidation of long-term losses is likely to persist. The phase should end with the long-term bear trend resuming. Our target is 0.7170.

EUR/GBP

Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: The EUR/GBP struggles to better the upper 30-day MA Bolli line, 0.8860. Long upper wicks on daily candles indicate demand fade. Daily momentum is fading too. Stand aside for now.

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