GBP/USD

The first regular FOMC meeting of the new year ends today. It is also the final meeting for Chair Janet Yellen before she hands over the leadership of the committee to Jerome Powell.

UK real GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% qoq (1.5% yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2017. It’s an acceleration from growth of 0.4% qoq in the third quarter of 2017 and an average of 0.3% qoq in the first half of 2017, but below the UK’s long-run average growth rate of around 0.6%-0.7% qoq. The print beat prior expectations. Annual GDP growth was 1.8% in 2017, slightly below growth of 1.9% in 2016.

The outlook for the UK economy remains weak and real GDP growth in 2018 is likely to be below that of 2017. There are three main reasons why we expect a slowdown:

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