The Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday as expected and suggested the pace of future hikes could be more gradual.

The central bank, which has lifted rates five times since July 2017 as the economy strengthens and reaches capacity, repeated that more monetary tightening would be needed to help meet its 2.0% inflation target.

But it noted downward revisions by Statistics Canada to growth figures, together with recent macroeconomic developments, "indicate there may be additional room for non-inflationary growth." This is a sign the economy might not be as close to capacity as previously thought.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Thursday said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth, comments likely to reinforce market expectations that the pace of future rate hikes will ease off.

Poloz, speaking a day after the central bank kept interest rates on hold, repeated that more tightening would be needed to keep inflation on track but added the pace would be decidedly data-dependent.

"It is fair to say that the data released since our October Monetary Policy Report have been on the disappointing side ... the economy has less momentum going into the fourth quarter than we believed it would," Poloz said.

Much of the bank's discussion ahead of the interest rate announcement on Wednesday had been focused on oil, he said. Prices for crude, one of Canada's main exports, are sinking amid a supply glut and this is hurting Alberta, the western province which is home to the domestic industry.

"It is already clear that a painful adjustment is developing for Western Canada and there will be a meaningful impact on the Canadian macroeconomy," said Poloz.

The sector could suffer further harm if trade tensions between the United States and China cut demand, he added.

A slump in oil prices badly hit the economy in 2015, and the damage this time round should be less on a dollar-for-dollar basis, Poloz said, given consolidation in the energy sector since 2014.

Poloz noted that the economy had been operating near capacity for a year, unemployment stood at its lowest level in decades and inflation was on target.

It was natural the bank would seek to raise rates from their current low levels, he said, while acknowledging the potential danger posed by homeowners who had borrowed heavily.

MyFXspot.com is an independent macroeconomic consultancy with thousands of subscribers all over the world. We provide fundamental research to help our clients make better investing decisions. Our subscribers should expect to get access to:

1Trading ideas (entry, take profit, stop loss)

Precious metals: GOLD, SILVER

Stocks: S&P 500, DAX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE

Commodities: WTI OIL

Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

2Investment Clock - great quantitative tool for investors

Different asset classes sectors tend to perform better than others at different phases of the economic cycle. We estimate current phase of the economic cycle and the Investment Clock shows which asset classes have historically outperformed in current phase of the economic cycle according to our research.

3Essential market news, technical and fundamental analysis, reviews of central bank decisions

We provide you regular commentaries on important economic and market issues and events, previews and forecasts of forthcoming data releases resulting from our knowledge, experience and quantitative tools.

4Last but not least

We describe fundamental factors, discuss recent changes in trends, resort to numerous quantitative tools and much more. You are able to take a close look at how we come to our conclusions and decide whether you share our current opinion regarding the market, but at the end of the day, it is you who decides what to do with your capital. That is why we strongly recommend you to conduct your own research and always rely on common sense – nobody knows what might work out for you just as you do.

Monthly

Subscription

$49.90

 
First week FREE
You can cancel at any time
CONTINUE

Quarterly

Subscription

$119.70

per month: $39.90
First week FREE
You can cancel at any time
CONTINUE

Annual

Subscription

$238.80

per month: $19.90
First week FREE
You can cancel at any time
CONTINUE

VAT tax will be added for EU individuals.